The assassination of Benazir Bhutto in Pakistan—a nuclear power—the deterioration of the situation in Afghanistan, the last-minute cancellation of the Lisbon-Dakar Rally earlier in the year for security reasons and threats linked to Islamic terrorism in Africa, all serve to illustrate the strategic climate of uncertainty which looks as though it will leave its mark on the months ahead. Just because the situation in Iraq seems to be improving slightly, with a drop in the number of attacks against coalition troops, there is little reason to believe that the world is finally moving towards a lasting peace. Wars, or at any rate crises, as ways of regulating relations between states, peoples, ethnic groups and cultures, have plenty of life left in them in 2008.

First of all we must draw up a balance sheet of the world situation, and then take into account the new strategic uncertainties which will lead to imbalances and threats to global security, such as the continual rise in raw material prices or global warming.

We will then look at the European Union following the adoption of the Lisbon Treaty and question the genuineness of its will to be a first-rank political player on the international scene. Finally, it will be useful to examine the prospects for French defence policy, with all the uncertainties inherent in current work on the White Paper⁽¹⁾ and the incessant rumours of restructuring, rationalisation and dissolution that surface here and there.