The nuclear test carried out by North Korea in October 2006 and the continual posturing by Pyongyang have again raised the possibility of an arms race in North-East Asia, with the medium-term risk of nuclear proliferation. We must therefore consider the reactions of the states in the region, which could result in them adopting military nuclear programmes if they take the political decision to do so. Although it would be exaggerating to claim that such a danger is imminent, we have to admit that the question is being discussed, even in countries which officially and unequivocally oppose nuclear weapons.

Taking military and civil nuclear capabilities together, North-East Asia is the most highly nuclearised region of the world, and the three civil nuclear powers of the region could rapidly acquire a nuclear arsenal if they so wished. It is also the region which presents the greatest risk of nuclear proliferation. The non-nuclear powers of the region are weighing the consequences of embarking on illicit nuclear programmes but for the time being remain firmly hostile to such a policy. This is true for South Korea, Japan and Taiwan, but a change in the strategic balance, or in their perceptions, could alter the situation. Among the most credible scenarios are:

• developments in the North Korean situation, primarily concerning the nuclear question but also its security implications. South Korea and Japan might thus undertake a military nuclear programme in case North Korea were to adopt a threatening posture, which would have the effect of creating a proliferation process in the region;