This is an enlarged version of a presentation given in Russian in Kyrgyzstan on 21 October 2008 at the opening of the forum of the Franco-Swiss Foundation for Human Progress (FPH) dedicated to ‘the future of Central Asia and the code of ethics for its armed forces’.
The future of Central Asia: from the Predictable to the Desirable
Even if the prospects for Central Asia, rich in hydrocarbons, uranium and gold, seem promising, its future remains a cause for concern. This situation results as much from surrounding threats as from the narrowness of outlook of some of its leaders, withdrawn into their national realities. In fact, the only salvation for Turkistan, at least the western part,(1) and for it to keep its independence, lies in the emergence of a form of solidarity between its states, even of a Central Asian Confederation. That is still a long way off. Nonetheless some recent signs indicate a community of awareness of a destiny based on a willingness to close ranks.
Central Asia’s Current Good Fortune
Since the tenth century, and the zenith of Central Asian history that was constituted by the Samanid Empire,(2) Central Asia’s opportunities have never been better.
The reserves of gas and oil of the Caspian, but also of other areas, where prospecting has barely started, assure the Kazakhs and Turkmen of high revenues for at least 50 years.
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